I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.- Thomas Jefferson.

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Tuesday, June 29, 2010

BIS, gold, silver, banks

I have a number of Banking, Gold and silver links for you today, at least one of which I may have sent before, and I'm reprinting an entire short article reviewing the latest Bank of International Settlements report, which is germaine to the current G-20 meetings. There is a thread in these links all running throught the BIS. As a side note, I almost invested in BIS, a long time ago, I probably should have. As for now, investing in banks seems dangerous, but if you were ot pick one, BIS might not be a bad choice. Maybe a pair trade, long BIS/short (GS, JPM, BA, etc.)


Eric King
The very fabric and the seams of the financial system are coming apart. Who knows what the timetable is for the implosion of the current monetary system? We are witnessing the greatest wealth transfer in history, and the horrors of the aftermath of this tragedy will not be forgotten for decades. Keep in mind that the stark warnings from today’s annual BIS (Bank for International Settlements) report are the very reason why it is so important for all readers globally to protect themselves and their families by owning gold.

June 28, 2010

This was from the annual report released today by the very secretive and extremely powerful BIS: “Three years after the onset of the crisis, expectations for recovery and reform are high but patience is wearing thin. Policymakers face a daunting legacy: the side effects of the ongoing financial and macroeconomic support measures, combined with the unresolved vulnerabilities of the financial sector, threaten to short-circuit the recovery; and the full suite of reforms necessary to improve the resilience of the financial system has yet to be completed.”

The BIS release continues: “When the transatlantic financial crisis began nearly three years ago, policymakers responded with emergency room treatment and strong medicine: large doses of direct support to the financial system, low interest rates, vastly expanded central bank balance sheets and massive fiscal stimulus. But such powerful measures have strong side effects, and their dangers are beginning to become apparent.”

“Here are the worst problems arising now from the continued use of the extraordinary programmes: Direct support is delaying vital post-crisis adjustment and runs the risk of creating zombie financial and non-financial firms. Low interest rates at the centre of the global economy are discouraging needed reductions in leverage, thereby adding to the distortions in the financial system and creating problems elsewhere.”

“The sustained bloat in their balance sheets means that central banks still dominate some segments of financial markets, thereby distorting the pricing of some important bonds and loans, discouraging necessary market-making by private individuals and institutions, and increasing moral hazard by making it clear that there is a buyer of last resort for some instruments. And the fiscal stimulus is spawning high and growing government debt that, in a number of countries, is now clearly on an unsustainable path.”

The first section of the BIS report concludes: “The financial disruptions in the first half of 2010 have brought the fragility of the industrial world’s financial system into stark relief: a shock of virtually any size risks a replay of the events we saw in late 2008 and early 2009. The sovereign debt crisis in Greece is clearly jeopardising Europe’s nascent recovery from the deep recession brought on by the earlier crisis.”
“Unlike then, however, we have hardly any room for manoeuvre. Policy rates are already at zero and central bank balance sheets are bloated. Although private sector debt has started to decline, public debt has taken its place, with sovereign fiscal positions already on an unsustainable path in a number of countries. In short, macro-economic policy is in a vastly worse position than it was three years ago, with little capacity to combat a new crisis – it will be difficult to find a source of further treatment should another emergency arise. Regaining the ability to react to economic and financial crises, by putting policies onto sustainable paths, is therefore a priority for macroeconomic policy"
Notice the BIS report describes zombie banks and even zombie non-financial firms. They also describe the “high and growing government debt” as clearly unsustainable. They then go on to note the fragility of the financial system and the fact that another shock would be extraordinarily dangerous to the system because central banks are losing the ability to maneuver as interest rates are low and “central banks balance sheets are bloated.”
Gold is often referred to as an insurance policy, and it is one insurance policy you cannot be without when the financial system ultimately implodes. You must own gold to be on the right side of the greatest wealth transfer in history.



In his obscure academic paper published in the June 1988 issue of The Journal of Political Economy, then-Harvard Professor Lawrence H. Summers, eventually to become U.S. Treasury secretary and presidential economics adviser, explained the inverse relationship between gold and real interest rates and implied that government could control the latter if it could control the former:


In recent and much shorter essays the financial writers Adrian Ash of Bullion Vault and Andrew Mickey of Q1 Publishing have elaborated a lot more understandably on the relationship between interest rates and gold.

Mickey's essay is headlined "Bernanke's Bind: One Chart Reveals Gold's Next Move" and you can find it at GoldSeek here:


Ash's essay is headlined "What The Economist Doesn't Know About Gold" and you can find it at Bullion Vault here:


Both conclude that as long as the real rate of interest is being destroyed and government currency devalued, the direction of the gold price has to be up. GATA would put an asterisk on that conclusion, to the effect that gold's rise will be tempered by central bank gold dishoarding and backstopping of bullion bank gold paper sales; but the more that people buy and take delivery of real metal rather than bullion bank paper, the faster the gold price will rise.

Central Banks Should Weigh Ending Stimulus to Avoid Side Effects, BIS Says


Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Thanks to our friend W.G. for pointing out a fascinating article written for Harper's magazine in November 1983 about the Bank for International Settlements by the veteran journalist Edward Jay Epstein, who seems to have been given unusual access to top BIS officials. Epstein's article shows the BIS running the world financial system almost entirely in secret and, in the process, frequently intervening in the gold market or making gold available to arbitrageurs as part of a general system of currency market regulation -- and swapping gold particularly as part of a policy of supporting the U.S. dollar.

Of course this was 27 years ago and the BIS couldn't possibly be part of such things anymore, could it? After all, Kitco senior market analyst Jon Nadler says central banks have no motive to manipulate the gold market, and CPM Group executive Jeff Christian says central bankers hardly ever think about gold. (That would explain why they have chosen him as their gold consultant.)

Epstein's article is headlined "Ruling the World of Money" and you can find it in the archive of his Internet site here:

And finally, out on the fringe-

Melt The Witch...swap all your Gold for SILVER!

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