I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.- Thomas Jefferson.

debt clock

Friday, April 6, 2012

GOP "Social Darwinism" Quantified! Spend 50 Percent More than Clinton, Pennies Less Than Obama!

Over at Investors Business Daily, the essential John Merline puts the Paul Ryan/GOP budget plan - the one being castigated as the second coming of Herod's babykilling hit squad and worse by spendthrift critics - into the awful perspective it deserves.
When expressed in terms of percentage of GDP (far right), Ryan's plan is higher than historical averages when it comes both to outlays and revenues. When stacked up against Bill Clinton's 2000 budget using constant 2005 dollars, Ryan's plan pulls in the same amount of money while spending 50 percent more.
If that's what passes for "thinly veiled social Darwinism" - President Obama's phrase - the English language is as broke as the federal treasury.
To put the dime's worth of difference between the Ryan plan and Obama's for spending over the next decade, take a look at this chart by Reason columnist and Mercatus Center economist Veronique de Rugy.
Total projected spending for 10 years under the Ryan/House GOP plan runs to $40 trillion. Under Obama's framework, it comes to $45 trillion. The only real difference between the two is that Ryan zeroes out spending on The Affordable Care Act.
Under the Congressional Budget Office's "alternative scenario," which is based on likely renewal of certain policies, historical spending patterns, and a passing engagement with reality that is largely missing from legislative and executive branch budget plans, we'll spend $47 trillion over the next 10 years.

Wall Street Math

Mises Daily: Friday, April 06, 2012 by


There's plenty of blame for the financial crisis being spread around. Those on the left say Wall Street wasn't regulated enough, while those on the right claim government mandates required lenders to make bad loans. The argument is made that the Federal Reserve was too loose, while the other side says Bernanke wasn't loose enough. Some blame greed. Others blame Wall Street's investment products. And then there's mathematics.
Wall Street has become a numbers game played at high speed by powerful computers trading complex derivatives utilizing even more complex mathematical modeling. Writing for the Huffington Post, Théo Le Bret asks the reader to
Take the Black-Scholes equation, used to estimate the value of a derivative: it is actually no more than a partial differential equation of the financial derivative's value, as a function of four variables, including time and "volatility" of the underlying asset (the derivative being a 'bet' on the future value of the asset). Differential equations are well-known to physicists, since such fundamental properties of nature as the wave equation or Schrodinger's equation for quantum mechanics are given in the form of differential equations, and in physics their solutions seem to be very reliable: so why is this not always the case in finance?
Mr. Le Bret quotes Albert Einstein for his answer: "as far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality."
Murray Rothbard put it another way:
In physics, the facts of nature are given to us. They may be broken down into their simple elements in the laboratory and their movements observed. On the other hand, we do not know the laws explaining the movements of physical particles; they are unmotivated.
Rothbard goes on to make the point that human action is motivated and thus economics is built on the basis of axioms. We can then deduce laws from these axioms, but, as Rothbard explains, "there are no simple elements of 'facts' in human action; the events of history are complex phenomena, which cannot 'test' anything."
Using the models that work so well for physicists, mathematicians on Wall Street got it spectacularly wrong in the mortgage and derivatives markets, just as mathematical economists can never predict the future with any accuracy. Motivated human behavior cannot be modeled.
But the mathematicians or "quants" underscore all of Wall Street's financial engineering, a process that takes a few pieces of paper and folds their attributes together to make new products, most times hoping to avoid taxes and regulation. Author Brendan Moynihan describes this engineering in his book Financial Origami: How the Wall Street Model Broke.
Origami is the traditional Japanese art of paper folding wherein amazing shapes and animals are created with just a few simple folds to a piece of paper. Moynihan cleverly extends the metaphor to the financial arena, pointing out that stocks, bonds, and insurance are pieces of paper simply folded by the Wall Street sales force into swaps, options, futures, derivatives of derivatives, and the like.
The author is adept at describing derivatives in terms a person can understand. Health-insurance premiums are a call option to have the insurance company pay for our medical care. Auto insurance premiums are like put options, allowing the insured to sell (put) his or her car, if it's totaled, to the insurer at blue-book value.
Nobel Prize winners have played a big hand in the creation of derivatives. Milton Friedman's paper on the need for futures markets in currencies paved the way for that market in 1971. But as Moynihan points out, it was Nixon's shutting of the gold window that created the need to mitigate currency and inflation risk.
Nobel Laureate Myron Scholes was cocreator of the Black-Scholes-Merton option-pricing model. He and cowinner Robert Merton used their model to blow-up Long Term Capital Management.
But it was little-known economist David X. Li's paper in the Journal of Fixed Income that would provide the intellectual foundation for Wall Street's flurry into mortgages. "On Default Correlation: A Copula Function Approach" became "the academic study used to support Wall Street's turning subprime mortgage pools into AAA-rated securities," writes Moynihan. "By the time it was over, the Street would create 64,000 AAA-rated securities, even though only 12 companies in the world had that rating."
Robert Stowe England, in his book Black Box Casino: How Wall Street's Risky Shadow Banking Crashed Global Finance, says Li's model "relied on the price history of credit default swaps against a given asset to determine the degree of correlation rather than rely on historical loan performance data."
"People got very excited about the Gaussian copula because of its mathematical elegance," says Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "but the thing never worked." Taleb, the author of The Black Swan, claims any attempt to measure correlation based on past history to be "charlatanism."
Subprime mortgages were bundled to become collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), which are a form of collateralized debt obligation(CDO). CDOs weren't new; the first rated CDO was assembled by Michael Milken in 1987. But instead of a mixture of investment-grade and junk corporate bonds, in the housing bubble, CDOs were rated AAA based upon Li's work.
Mr. England wryly points out, "A cynic might say that the CDO was invented to create a place to dump lower credit quality or junk bonds and hide them among better credits."
England quotes Michael Lewis, author of The Big Short: "The CDO was, in effect, a credit laundering service for the residents of Lower Middle Class America." For Wall Street it was a machine that "turned lead into gold."
Wall Street's CDO mania served to pump up investment-bank leverage. England explains that if level-3 securities were included (level-3 assets, which include CDOs, cannot be valued by using observable measures, such as market prices and models) then Bear Stearns sported leverage of 262 to 1 just before the crash. Lehman was close behind at 225, Morgan Stanley at 222, Citigroup at 212, and Goldman Sachs was levered at 200 to 1.
Leverage like that requires either perfection or eventual government bailout for survival.
The CDO market created the need for a way to bet against the CDOs and the credit-default-swap (CDS) market was born. Bundling the CDS together created synthetic CDOs. "With synthetic CDOs, Wall Street crossed over to The Matrix," writes England, "a world where reality is simulated by computers."
It's England's view that the CDO market "was the casino where the bets were placed. Wall Street became bigger and chancier than Las Vegas and Atlantic City combined — and more." According to Richard Zabel, the total notional value of the entire CDS market was $45 trillion by the end of 2007, at the same time the bond and structured vehicle markets totaled only $25 trillion.
So the speculative portion of the CDS market was at least $20 trillion with speculators betting on the possibility of a credit event for securities not owned by either party. England does not see this as a good thing. It's Mr. England's view that credit default swaps concentrated risk in certain financial institutions, instead of disbursing risk.
In "Credit Default Swaps from the Viewpoint of Libertarian Property Rights and Contract Credit Default Swaps Theory," published in Libertarian Papers, authors Thorsten Polleit and Jonathan Mariano contend, "The truth is that CDS provide investors with an efficient and effective instrument for exposing economically unsound and unsustainable fiat money regimes and the economic production structure it creates."
Polleit and Mariano explain that credit default swaps make a borrower's credit risk tradable. CDS is like an insurance policy written against the potential of a negative credit event. These derivatives, while being demonized by many observers, serve to increase "the disciplinary pressure on borrowers who are about to build up unsustainable debt levels to consolidate; or it makes borrowers who have become financially overstretched go into default."
Mr. England concludes his book saying, "We need a way forward to a safer, sounder financial system where the power of sunlight on financial institutions and markets helps enable free market discipline to work its invisible hand for the good of all."
Polleit and Mariano explain that it is the CDS market that provides that sunlight.
The panic of 2008 was the inevitable collapse of an increasingly rickety fiat-money and banking system — a system where the central bank attempts to direct and manipulate the nation's investment and production with an eye to maximize employment. In a speech delivered to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Jim Grant told the central bankers that interest rates should convey information. "But the only information conveyed in a manipulated yield curve is what the Fed wants."
Wall Street's math wizards convinced the Masters of the Universe that their numbers don't lie, believing they could model the Federal Reserve's house-of-mirrors market. Maybe the numbers don't lie, but the assumptions do.
Advising about mathematical economics, Rothbard wrote, "ignore the fancy welter of equations and look for the assumptions underneath. Invariably they are few in number, simple, and wrong." The same could be said for Dr. Li's model and Scholes's model before him.
Until the era of unstable fiat-money regimes ends, the search for scapegoats will continue — because the crashes will never end.

Friday, March 30, 2012

The Myth of Natural Monopoly


[Originally published in The Review of Austrian Economics 9 (2), 1996.]
The very term "public utility" … is an absurd one. Every good is useful "to the public," and almost every good … may be considered "necessary." Any designation of a few industries as "public utilities" is completely arbitrary and unjustified.
— Murray Rothbard, Power and Market
Most so-called public utilities have been granted governmental franchise monopolies because they are thought to be "natural monopolies." Put simply, a natural monopoly is said to occur when production technology, such as relatively high fixed costs, causes long-run average total costs to decline as output expands. In such industries, the theory goes, a single producer will eventually be able to produce at a lower cost than any two other producers, thereby creating a "natural" monopoly. Higher prices will result if more than one producer supplies the market.
Furthermore, competition is said to cause consumer inconvenience because of the construction of duplicative facilities, e.g., digging up the streets to put in dual gas or water lines. Avoiding such inconveniences is another reason offered for government franchise monopolies for industries with declining long-run average total costs.
It is a myth that natural-monopoly theory was developed first by economists, and then used by legislators to "justify" franchise monopolies. The truth is that the monopolies were created decades before the theory was formalized by intervention-minded economists, who then used the theory as an ex post rationale for government intervention. At the time when the first government franchise monopolies were being granted, the large majority of economists understood that large-scale, capital-intensive production did not lead to monopoly, but was an absolutely desirable aspect of the competitive process.
The word "process" is important here. If competition is viewed as a dynamic, rivalrous process of entrepreneurship, then the fact that a single producer happens to have the lowest costs at any one point in time is of little or no consequence. The enduring forces of competition — including potential competition — will render free-market monopoly an impossibility.
The theory of natural monopoly is also ahistorical. There is no evidence of the "natural-monopoly" story ever having been carried out — of one producer achieving lower long-run average total costs than everyone else in the industry and thereby establishing a permanent monopoly. As discussed below, in many of the so-called public-utility industries of the late 18th and early 19th centuries, there were often literally dozens of competitors.

Economies of Scale During the Franchise Monopoly Era

During the late 19th century, when local governments were beginning to grant franchise monopolies, the general economic understanding was that "monopoly" was caused by government intervention, not the free market, through franchises, protectionism, and other means. Large-scale production and economies of scale were seen as a competitive virtue, not a monopolistic vice. For example, Richard T. Ely, cofounder of the American Economic Association, wrote that "large scale production is a thing which by no means necessarily signifies monopolized production."[1] John Bates Clark, Ely's cofounder, wrote in 1888 that the notion that industrial combinations would "destroy competition" should "not be too hastily accepted."[2]
Mises Academy: Tom DiLorenzo teaches The Road to Serfdom: Then and Now
Herbert Davenport of the University of Chicago advised in 1919 that only a few firms in an industry where there are economies of scale does not "require the elimination of competition,"[3] and his colleague, James Laughlin, noted that even when "a combination is large, a rival combination may give the most spirited competition"[4] Irving Fisher[5] and Edwin R.A. Seligman[6] both agreed that large-scale production produced competitive benefits through cost savings in advertising, selling, and less cross-shipping.
Large-scale production units unequivocally benefited the consumer, according to turn-of-the-century economists. For without large-scale production, according to Seligman, "the world would revert to a more primitive state of well being, and would virtually renounce the inestimable benefits of the best utilization of capital."[7] Simon Patten of the Wharton School expressed a similar view that "the combination of capital does not cause any economic disadvantage to the community. … Combinations are much more efficient than were the small producers whom they displaced."[8]
Like virtually every other economist of the day, Columbia's Franklin Giddings viewed competition much like the modern-day Austrian economists do, as a dynamic, rivalrous process. Consequently, he observed that
competition in some form is a permanent economic process. … Therefore, when market competition seems to have been suppressed, we should inquire what has become of the forces by which it was generated. We should inquire, further, to what degree market competition actually is suppressed or converted into other forms.[9]
In other words, a "dominant" firm that underprices all its rivals at any one point in time has not suppressed competition, for competition is "a permanent economic process."
David A. Wells, one of the most popular economic writers of the late 19th century, wrote that "the world demands abundance of commodities, and demands them cheaply; and experience shows that it can have them only by the employment of great capital upon extensive scale."[10] And George Gunton believed that
concentration of capital does not drive small capitalists out of business, but simply integrates them into larger and more complex systems of production, in which they are enabled to produce … more cheaply for the community and obtain a larger income for themselves. … Instead of concentration of capital tending to destroy competition the reverse is true. … By the use of large capital, improved machinery and better facilities the trust can and does undersell the corporation.[11]
The above quotations are not a selected, but rather a comprehensive list. It may seem odd by today's standards, but as A.W. Coats pointed out, by the late 1880s there were only ten men who had attained full-time professional status as economists in the United States.[12] Thus, the above quotations cover virtually every professional economist who had anything to say about the relationship between economies of scale and competitiveness at the turn of the century.
The significance of these views is that these men observed firsthand the advent of large-scale production and did not see it leading to monopoly, "natural" or otherwise. In the spirit of the Austrian School, they understood that competition was an ongoing process, and that market dominance was always necessarily temporary in the absence of monopoly-creating government regulation. This view is also consistent with my own research findings that the ''trusts" of the late 19th century were in fact dropping their prices and expanding output faster than the rest of the economy — they were the most dynamic and competitive of all industries, not monopolists.[13] Perhaps this is why they were targeted by protectionist legislators and subjected to "antitrust" laws.
The economics profession came to embrace the theory of natural monopoly after the 1920s, when it became infatuated with "scientism" and adopted a more or less engineering theory of competition that categorized industries in terms of constant, decreasing, and increasing returns to scale (declining average total costs). According to this way of thinking, engineering relationships determined market structure and, consequently, competitiveness. The meaning of competition was no longer viewed as a behavioral phenomenon, but an engineering relationship. With the exception of such economists as Joseph Schumpeter, Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, and other members of the Austrian School, the ongoing process of competitive rivalry and entrepreneurship was largely ignored.

How "Natural" Were the Early Natural Monopolies?

There is no evidence at all that at the outset of public-utility regulation there existed any such phenomenon as a "natural monopoly." As Harold Demsetz has pointed out:
Six electric light companies were organized in the one year of 1887 in New York City. Forty-five electric light enterprises had the legal right to operate in Chicago in 1907. Prior to 1895, Duluth, Minnesota, was served by five electric lighting companies, and Scranton, Pennsylvania, had four in 1906. … During the latter part of the 19th century, competition was the usual situation in the gas industry in this country. Before 1884, six competing companies were operating in New York City … competition was common and especially persistent in the telephone industry … Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, Columbus, Detroit, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis, among the larger cities, had at least two telephone services in 1905.[14]
In an extreme understatement, Demsetz concludes that "one begins to doubt that scale economies characterized the utility industry at the time when regulation replaced market competition."[15]
A most instructive example of the non-existence of natural monopoly in the utility industries is provided in a 1936 book by economist George T. Brown entitled "The Gas Light Company of Baltimore," which bears the misleading subtitle, "A Study of Natural Monopoly."[16] The book presents "the study of the evolutionary character of utilities" in general, with special emphasis on the Gas Light Company of Baltimore, the problems of which "are not peculiar either to the Baltimore company or the State of Maryland, but are typical of those met everywhere in the public utility industry."[17]
The history of the Gas Light Company of Baltimore figures prominently in the whole history of natural monopoly, in theory and in practice, for the influential Richard T. Ely, who was a professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, chronicled the company's problems in a series of articles in the Baltimore Sun that were later published as a widely-sold book. Much of Ely's analysis came to be the accepted economic dogma with regard to the theory of natural monopoly.
The history of the Gas Light Company of Baltimore is that, from its founding in 1816, it constantly struggled with new competitors. Its response was not only to try to compete in the marketplace, but also to lobby the state and local government authorities to refrain from granting corporate charters to its competitors. The company operated with economies of scale, but that did not prevent numerous competitors from cropping up.
"Competition is the life of business," the Baltimore Sun editorialized in 1851 as it welcomed news of new competitors in the gas light business.[18] The Gas Light Company of Baltimore, however, "objected to the granting of franchise rights to the new company."[19]
Brown states that "gas companies in other cities were exposed to ruinous competition," and then catalogues how those same companies sought desperately to enter the Baltimore market. But if such competition was so "ruinous," why would these companies enter new — and presumably just as "ruinous" — markets? Either Brown's theory of "ruinous competition" — which soon came to be the generally accepted one — was incorrect, or those companies were irrational gluttons for financial punishment.
By ignoring the dynamic nature of the competitive process, Brown made the same mistake that many other economists still make: believing that "excessive" competition can be "destructive" if low-cost producers drive their less efficient rivals from the market.[20] Such competition may be "destructive" to high-cost competitors, but it is beneficial to consumers.
In 1880 there were three competing gas companies in Baltimore who fiercely competed with one another. They tried to merge and operate as a monopolist in 1888, but a new competitor foiled their plans: "Thomas Aha Edison introduced the electric light which threatened the existence of all gas companies."[21] From that point on there was competition between both gas and electric companies, all of which incurred heavy fixed costs which led to economies of scale. Nevertheless, no free-market or "natural" monopoly ever materialized.
When monopoly did appear, it was solely because of government intervention. For example, in 1890 a bill was introduced into the Maryland legislature that "called for an annual payment to the city from the Consolidated [Gas Company] of $10,000 a year and 3 percent of all dividends declared in return for the privilege of enjoying a 25-year monopoly.[22] This is the now-familiar approach of government officials colluding with industry executives to establish a monopoly that will gouge the consumers, and then sharing the loot with the politicians in the form of franchise fees and taxes on monopoly revenues. This approach is especially pervasive today in the cable TV industry.
Legislative "regulation" of gas and electric companies produced the predictable result of monopoly prices, which the public complained bitterly about. Rather than deregulating the industry and letting competition control prices, however, public utility regulation was adopted to supposedly appease the consumers who, according to Brown, "felt that the negligent manner in which their interests were being served [by legislative control of gas and electric prices] resulted in high rates and monopoly privileges. The development of utility regulation in Maryland typified the experience of other states."[23]
Not all economists were fooled by the "natural-monopoly" theory advocated by utility industry monopolists and their paid economic advisers. In 1940 economist Horace M. Gray, an assistant dean of the graduate school at the University of Illinois, surveyed the history of "the public utility concept," including the theory of "natural" monopoly. "During the 19th century," Gray observed, it was widely believed that "the public interest would be best promoted by grants of special privilege to private persons and to corporations" in many industries.[24] This included patents, subsidies, tariffs, land grants to the railroads, and monopoly franchises for "public" utilities. "The final result was monopoly, exploitation, and political corruption."[25]
With regard to "public" utilities, Gray records that "between 1907 and 1938, the policy of state-created, state-protected monopoly became firmly established over a significant portion of the economy and became the keystone of modern public utility regulation."[26] From that time on, "the public utility status was to be the haven of refuge for all aspiring monopolists who found it too difficult, too costly, or too precarious to secure and maintain monopoly by private action alone."[27]
In support of this contention, Gray pointed out how virtually every aspiring monopolist in the country tried to be designated a "public utility," including the radio, real estate, milk, air transport, coal, oil, and agricultural industries, to name but a few. Along these same lines, "the whole NRA experiment may be regarded as an effort by big business to secure legal sanction for its monopolistic practices."[28] Those lucky industries that were able to be politically designated as "public utilities" also used the public utility concept to keep out the competition.
The role of economists in this scheme was to construct what Gray called a "confused rationalization" for "the sinister forces of private privilege and monopoly," i.e., the theory of "natural" monopoly. "The protection of consumers faded into the background."[29]
More recent economic research supports Gray's analysis. In one of the first statistical studies of the effects of rate regulation in the electric utilities industry, published in 1962, George Stigler and Claire Friedland found no significant differences in prices and profits of utilities with and without regulatory commissions from 1917 to 1932.[30] Early rate regulators did not benefit the consumer, but were rather "captured" by the industry, as happened in so many other industries, from trucking to airlines to cable television. It is noteworthy — but not very laudable — that it took economists almost 50 years to begin studying the actual, as opposed to the theoretical, effects of rate regulation.
Sixteen years after the Stigler-Friedland study, Gregg Jarrell observed that 25 states substituted state for municipal regulation of electric power ratemaking between 1912 and 1917, the effects of which were to raise prices by 46 percent and profits by 38 percent, while reducing the level of output by 23 percent.[31] Thus, municipal regulation failed to hold prices down. But the utilities wanted an even more rapid increase in their prices, so they successfully lobbied for state regulation under the theory that state regulators would be less pressured by local customer groups, than mayors and city councils would be.
These research results are consistent with Horace Gray's earlier interpretation of public utility rate regulation as an anticonsumer, monopolistic, price-fixing scheme.

The Problem of "Excessive Duplication"

In addition to the economies of scale canard, another reason that has been given for granting monopoly franchises to "natural monopolies" is that allowing too many competitors is too disruptive. It is too costly to a community, the argument goes, to allow several different water suppliers, electric power producers, or cable TV operators to dig up the streets. But as Harold Demsetz has observed:
[T]he problem of excessive duplication of distribution systems is attributable to the failure of communities to set a proper price on the use of these scarce resources. The right to use publicly owned thoroughfares is the right to use a scarce resource. The absence of a price for the use of these resources, a price high enough to reflect the opportunity costs of such alternative uses as the servicing of uninterrupted traffic and unmarred views, will lead to their overutilization. The setting of an appropriate fee for the use of these resources would reduce the degree of duplication to optimal levels.[32]
Thus, just as the problem with "natural" monopolies is actually caused by government intervention, so is the "duplication of facilities" problem. It is created by the failure of governments to put a price on scarce urban resources. More precisely, the problem is really caused by the fact that governments own the streets under which utility lines are placed, and that the impossibility of rational economic calculation within socialistic institutions precludes them from pricing these resources appropriately, as they would under a private-property competitive-market regime.
Contrary to Demsetz's claim, rational economic pricing in this case is impossible precisely because of government ownership of roads and streets. Benevolent and enlightened politicians, even ones who have studied at the feet of Harold Demsetz, would have no rational way of determining what prices to charge. Murray Rothbard explained all this more than 25 years ago:
The fact that the government must give permission for the use of its streets has been cited to justify stringent government regulations of 'public utilities,' many of which (like water or electric companies) must make use of the streets. The regulations are then treated as a voluntary quid pro quo. But to do so overlooks the fact that governmental ownership of the streets is itself a permanent act of intenention. Regulation of public utilities or of any other industry discourages investment in these industries, thereby depriving consumers of the best satisfaction of their wants. For it distorts the resource allocations of the free market.[33]
The so-called "limited-space monopoly" argument for franchise monopolies, Rothbard further argued, is a red herring, for how many firms will be profitable in any line of production
is an institutional question and depends on such concrete data as the degree of consumer demand, the type of product sold, the physical productivity of the processes, the supply and pricing of factors, the forecasting of entrepreneurs, etc. Spatial limitations may be unimportant.[34]
In fact, even if spatial limitations do allow only one firm to operate in a particular geographical market, that does not necessitate monopoly, for "monopoly" is "a meaningless appellation, unless monopoly price is achieved," and "all prices on a free market are competitive."[35] Only government intervention can generate monopolistic prices.
The only way to achieve a free-market price that reflects true opportunity costs and leads to optimal levels of "duplication" is through free exchange in a genuinely free market, a sheer impossibility without private property and free markets.[36] Political fiat is simply not a feasible substitute for the prices that are determined by the free market because rational economic calculation is impossible without markets.
Under private ownership of streets and sidewalks, individual owners are offered a tradeoff of lower utility prices for the temporary inconvenience of having a utility company run a trench through their property. If "duplication" occurs under such a system, it is because freely choosing individuals value the extra service or lower prices or both more highly than the cost imposed on them by the inconvenience of a temporary construction project on their property. Free markets necessitate neither monopoly nor "excessive duplication" in any economically meaningful sense.

Competition for the Field

The existence of economies of scale in water, gas, electricity, or other "public utilities" in no way necessitates either monopoly or monopoly pricing. As Edwin Chadwick wrote in 1859, a system of competitive bidding for the services of private utility franchises can eliminate monopoly pricing as long as there is competition "for the field."[37] As long as there is vigorous bidding for the franchise, the results can be both avoidance of duplication of facilities and competitive pricing of the product or service. That is, bidding for the franchise can take place in the form of awarding the franchise to the utility that offers consumers the lowest price for some constant quality of service (as opposed to the highest price for the franchise).
Harold Demsetz revived interest in the concept of "competition for the field" in a 1968 article.[38] The theory of natural monopoly, Demsetz pointed out, fails to "reveal the logical steps that carry it from scale economies in production to monopoly price in the market place."[39] If one bidder can do the job at less cost than two or more,
then the bidder with the lowest bid price for the entire job will be awarded the contract, whether the good be cement, electricity, stamp vending machines, or whatever, but the lowest bid price need not be a monopoly price. … The natural monopoly theory provides no logical basis for monopoly prices.[40]
There is no reason to believe that the bidding process will not be competitive. Hanke and Walters have shown that such a franchise bidding process operates very efficiently in the French water supply industry.[41]

The Natural-Monopoly Myth: Electric Utilities

According to natural-monopoly theory, competition cannot persist in the electric-utility industry. But the theory is contradicted by the fact that competition has in fact persisted for decades in dozens of US cities. Economist Walter J. Primeaux has studied electric utility competition for more than 20 years. In his 1986 book, Direct Utility Competition: The Natural Monopoly Myth, he concludes that in those cities where there is direct competition in the electric utility industries:
  • Direct rivalry between two competing firms has existed for very long periods of time — for over 80 years in some cities;
  • The rival electric utilities compete vigorously through prices and services;
  • Customers have gained substantial benefits from the competition, compared to cities were there are electric utility monopolies;
  • Contrary to natural-monopoly theory, costs are actually lower where there are two firms operating;
  • Contrary to natural-monopoly theory, there is no more excess capacity under competition than under monopoly in the electric utility industry;
  • The theory of natural monopoly fails on every count: competition exists, price wars are not "serious," there is better consumer service and lower prices with competition, competition persists for very long periods of time, and consumers themselves prefer competition to regulated monopoly; and
  • Any consumer satisfaction problems caused by dual power lines are considered by consumers to be less significant than the benefits from competition.[42]
Primeaux also found that although electric utility executives generally recognized the consumer benefits of competition, they personally preferred monopoly!
Ten years after the publication of Primeaux's book, at least one state — California — is transforming its electric utility industry "from a monopoly controlled by a handful of publicly held utilities to an open market."[43] Other states are moving in the same direction, finally abandoning the baseless theory of natural monopoly in favor of natural competition:[44]
  • The Ormet Corporation, an aluminum smelter in West Virginia, obtained state permission to solicit competitive bids from 40 electric utilities;
  • Alcan Aluminum Corp. in Oswego, New York has taken advantage of technological breakthroughs that allowed it to build a new power generating plant next to its mill, cutting its power costs by two-thirds. Niagara Mohawk, its previous (and higher-priced) power supplier, is suing the state to prohibit Alcan from using its own power;
  • Arizona political authorities allowed Cargill, Inc. to buy power from anywhere in the West; the company expects to save $8 million per year;
  • New federal laws permit utilities to import lower-priced power, using the power lines of other companies to transport it;
  • Wisconsin Public Service commissioner Scott Neitzel recently declared, "free markets are the best mechanism for delivering to the consumer … the best service at the lowest cost";
  • The prospect of future competition is already forcing some electric utility monopolies to cut their costs and prices. When the TVAwas faced with competition from Duke Power in 1988, it managed to hold its rates steady without an increase for the next several years.
The potential benefits to the US economy from demonopolization of the electric utility industry are enormous. Competition will initially save consumers at least $40 billion per year, according to utility economist Robert Michaels.[45] It will also spawn the development of new technologies that will be economical to develop because of lower energy costs. For example, "automakers and other metal benders would make much more intensive use of laser cutting tools and laser welding machines, both of which are electron guzzlers.[46]

The Natural-Monopoly Myth: Cable TV

Cable television is also a franchise monopoly in most cities because of the theory of natural monopoly. But the monopoly in this industry is anything but "natural." Like electricity, there are dozens of cities in the United States where there are competing cable firms. "Direct competition … currently occurs in at least three dozen jurisdictions nationally."[47]
"The theory of natural monopoly is an economic fiction. No such thing as a 'natural' monopoly has ever existed."
The existence of longstanding competition in the cable industry gives the lie to the notion that that industry is a "natural monopoly" and is therefore in need of franchise monopoly regulation. The cause of monopoly in cable TV is government regulation, not economies of scale. Although cable operators complain of "duplication," it is important to keep in mind that "while over-building an existing cable system can lower the profitability of the incumbent operator, it unambiguously improves the position of consumers who face prices determined not by historical costs, but by the interplay of supply and demand."[48]
Also like the case of electric power, researchers have found that in those cities where there are competing cable companies prices are about 23 percent below those of monopolistic cable operators.[49] Cablevision of Central Florida, for example, reduced its basic prices from $12.95 to $6.50 per month in "duopoly" areas in order to compete. When Telestat entered Riviera Beach, Florida, it offered 26 channels of basic service for $5.75, compared to Comcast's 12channel offering for $8.40 per month. Comcast responded by upgrading its service and dropping its prices.[50] In Presque Isle, Maine, when the city government invited competition, the incumbent firm quickly upgraded its service from only 12 to 54 channels.[51]
In 1987 the Pacific West Cable Company sued the city of Sacramento, California on First Amendment grounds for blocking its entry into the cable market. A jury found that "the Sacramento cable market was not a natural monopoly and that the claim of natural monopoly was a sham used by defendants as a pretext for granting a single cable television franchise … to promote the making of cash payments and provision of 'in-kind' services … and to obtain increased campaign contribution."[52] The city was forced to adopt a competitive cable policy, the result of which was that the incumbent cable operator, Scripps Howard, dropped its monthly price from $14.50 to $10 to meet a competitor's price. The company also offered free installation and three months free service in every area where it had competition.
Still, the big majority of cable systems in the U.S. are franchise monopolies for precisely the reasons stated by the Sacramento jury: they are mercantilistic schemes whereby a monopoly is created to the benefit of cable companies, who share the loot with the politicians through campaign contributions, free air time on "community service programming," contributions to local foundations favored by the politicians, stock equity and consulting contracts to the politically well connected, and various gifts to the franchise authorities.
In some cities, politicians collect these indirect bribes for five to ten years or longer from multiple companies before finally granting a franchise. They then benefit from part of the monopoly rents earned by the monopoly franchisee. As former FCC chief economist Thomas Hazlett, who is perhaps the nation's foremost authority on the economics of the cable TV industry, has concluded, "we may characterize the franchising process as nakedly inefficient from a welfare perspective, although it does produce benefits for municipal franchiser."[53] The barrier to entry in the cable TV industry is not economies of scale, but the political price-fixing conspiracy that exists between local politicians and cable operators.

The Natural-Monopoly Myth: Telephone Services

The biggest myth of all in this regard is the notion that telephone service is a natural monopoly. Economists have taught generations of students that telephone service is a "classic" example of market failure and that government regulation in the "public interest" was necessary. But as Adam D. Thierer recently proved, there is nothing at all "natural" about the telephone monopoly enjoyed by AT&T for so many decades; it was purely a creation of government intervention."[54]
Once AT&T's initial patents expired in 1893, dozens of competitors sprung up. "By the end of 1894 over 80 new independent competitors had already grabbed 5 percent of total market share … after the turn of the century, over 3,000 competitors existed.[55] In some states there were over 200 telephone companies operating simultaneously. By 1907, AT&T's competitors had captured 51 percent of the telephone market and prices were being driven sharply down by the competition. Moreover, there was no evidence of economies of scale, and entry barriers were obviously almost nonexistent, contrary to the standard account of the theory of natural monopoly as applied to the telephone industry.[56]
The eventual creation of the telephone monopoly was the result of a conspiracy between AT&T and politicians who wanted to offer "universal telephone service" as a pork-barrel entitlement to their constituents. Politicians began denouncing competition as "duplicative," "destructive," and "wasteful," and various economists were paid to attend congressional hearings in which they somberly declared telephony a natural monopoly. "There is nothing to be gained by competition in the local telephone business," one congressional hearing concluded.[57]
The crusade to create a monopolistic telephone industry by government fiat finally succeeded when the federal government used World War I as an excuse to nationalize the industry in 1918. AT&T still operated its phone system, but it was controlled by a government commission headed by the postmaster general. Like so many other instances of government regulation, AT&T quickly "captured" the regulators and used the regulatory apparatus to eliminate its competitors. "By 1925 not only had virtually every state established strict rate regulation guidelines, but local telephone competition was either discouraged or explicitly prohibited within many of those jurisdictions."[58]

Conclusions

The theory of natural monopoly is an economic fiction. No such thing as a "natural" monopoly has ever existed. The history of the so-called public utility concept is that the late 19th and early 20th century "utilities" competed vigorously and, like all other industries, they did not like competition. They first secured government-sanctioned monopolies, and then, with the help of a few influential economists, constructed an ex post rationalization for their monopoly power.
This has to be one of the greatest corporate public relations coups of all time. "By a soothing process of rationalization," wrote Horace M. Gray more than 50 years ago, "men are able to oppose monopolies in general but to approve certain types of monopolies. … Since these monopolies were 'natural' and since nature is beneficent, it followed that they were 'good' monopolies. … Government was therefore justified in establishing 'good' monopolies."[59]
In industry after industry, the natural monopoly concept is finally eroding. Electric power, cable TV, telephone services, and the mail, are all on the verge of being deregulated, either legislatively or de facto, due to technological change. Introduced in the United States at about the same time communism was introduced to the former Soviet Union, franchise monopolies are about to become just as defunct. Like all monopolists, they will use every last resource to lobby to maintain their monopolistic privileges, but the potential gains to consumers of free markets are too great to justify them. The theory of natural monopoly is a 19th century economic fiction that defends 19th century (or 18th century, in the case of the US Postal Service) monopolistic privileges, and has no useful place in the 21st century American economy.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012


A paper published in Cell is a tour de force of 'omics in one indivudal -- the senior investigator, Dr. Michael Snyder. Here we discuss the findings and implications of such a compehensive 'omic assessment.
Chen R, et al. Personal omics profiling reveals dynamic molecular and medical phenotypes. Cell. 2012;148:1293-1207.
______________________
Below is a transcript of Dr. Topol's post "A Landmark N of 1 'Panor-omic' Study." We look forward to your feedback.
Eric Topol here to discuss a landmark paper in the journal Cell. This is the first time we've actually reviewed a paper in Cell on the Genomic Medicine site. It's a particularly unique paper. It is an N of 1, "panor-omic," comprehensive, very detailed 'omic study of a single individual. In this case, the individual is Michael Snyder, a geneticist from Stanford University, with 39 other collaboratives, predominantly from Stanford, but also from Yale and Spain.

Basically, what this entailed was a serial examination of 20 different blood draws that Michael Snyder had over a 14-month period. During that time, virtually everything you could imagine was assessed. Not only was there DNA sequencing at very high, deep coverage, high accuracy and resolution, but also there was gene expression. There was RNA seq to detect any issues in RNA. There were protein and metabolite assays that were comprehensive, along with autoantibody, along with micro RNAs -- all of this over a 14-month period.

As you would expect, the susceptibility to some diseases through, not just common variations, but rare variations were detected, including a key rare variant associated with diabetes mellitus and another rare variant with high penetrance for aplastic anemia.

But what was interesting during this study that spanned over 14 months was that Michael Snyder had two viral infections. Right around 300 days, he had a viral infection that led to a marked increase in genes that were associated with inflammation, interferon, and the conventional serum CRP that we measure. With that, his glucoses shot up, as well as his HbA1C, even up to about 6.7% from what had been normal, with fasting glucoses that were in the mid-100s. Then he went on to a lifestyle program to lose weight and exercise more, and was able to reverse the clinical manifestations of diabetes.

This is a remarkable paper. It is an N of 1 study with an exceptional amount of billions and billions of data points across all the different 'omics, and even expanding into autoantibody formation. It also tells us about how gene pathways and gene expression change over time. It's not just a measurement once, it's dynamic -- the variants in one's genome, as they can be expressed differently in different tissues, they also can be expressed differently as a function of time. It's highly instructive.

The question, of course, is, can this be done, this type of study, with an amazing amount of bioinformatics and data -- can this be done in the real world. Should it be done in the real world? Well, certainly, as we have discussed in prior segments, this is something that could be of immense value in patients with rare, idiopathic, we-don't-know-the-cause, conditions. Certainly for serious cancers, some type of "panor-omic" view could be helpful if we could do this quickly before therapies were started, or, of course, in refractory or relapsed cases.

Ultimately, when this is all done through a means of algorithm software to process all this data and when it can be markedly reduced in expense, some of these components will be useful for prevention as was used in this classic case.

For example, with Michael Snyder being att significant risk, of developing aplastic anemia, he can go into prevention mode and surveillance, just as he did with the known risk of diabetes. In fact, much of this I had written about in the book Creative Destruction of Medicine -- but now it's already been actualized as of March 15, 2012. When you combine all these 'omics with wireless sensor data and anatomical data through high resolution imaging, like the ultrasound pocket echo, you get an N of 1 that is truly unprecedented.

I'll be interested in your views about this "panor-omic" N of 1 landmark study, a tour de force. It will be interesting to see what you have to say. Thanks very much for your attention.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

The Vampire Economy and the Market

Mises Daily: Wednesday, March 21, 2012 by
  • [This article was originally published in New Perspectives in Political Economy, the academic journal of CEVRO Institute (School of Legal and Social Studies), vol. 7(1), pp. 141–154.]

1. Authoritarian Capitalism (Fascism) and Liberal Capitalism (the Free Market)

What is sometimes referred to as "authoritarian capitalism," or fascism, is in fact a variety of statism, specifically socialism, the system of political economy in which the prerogatives of ownership over the means of production and distribution are vested in the state. Under the fascist economic system, private capitalists are nominally regarded as the owners of the means of production, meaning that they hold property titles to these assets and are referred to as "owners" of these assets. However, this so-called ownership is merely illusory. The actual prerogatives of ownership are vested, not in the private capitalist, but in the state and its bureaucracy.[1] It is the state that tells the private capitalist how he must use "his" property, under the threat of confiscation or even imprisonment. In the words of economist Ludwig von Mises, it is "socialism in the outward guise of capitalism."[2]
This is a very different political-economic system from "liberal capitalism," also known as "free-market capitalism." Free-market capitalism is an authentically capitalist system, in which the prerogatives of ownership over the means of production are vested in private citizens, not in the state. Under this system, the means of production are genuinely privately owned, and the private-property owner holds, not just a property title, but, more importantly, the actual prerogatives of ownership and ultimate control. In the system of free-market capitalism, the private-property owner is regarded as having property rights (i.e., an enforceable moral claim to the prerogatives of ownership) that must be respected by all others, including the state and its functionaries.
In their purest forms, these two systems of political economy are fundamentally different in kind; in fact, they are polar opposites. However, this opposing nature stems from the degree to which the prerogatives of ownership of ostensibly private property are arrogated to the state — i.e., the degree of state intervention. On the one extreme we have the free market, in which there is no — or at least little — state interference with private-property ownership (which is therefore genuine); on the other extreme we have fascism, in which there is plentiful or total state interference with private-property ownership (which is therefore illusory).
Since fascism and the free market are distinguished by state intervention we can therefore see that the two systems are separated by a connecting bridge of interventionism through the system of the "mixed economy." The fascist system can be viewed as a system of hyperinterventionism, accruing when state interference with private-property rights is so extensive that the alleged private ownership of property becomes a mere farce, and the state may properly be regarded as the de facto owner of the means of production and distribution — i.e., there is de facto socialism. For this reason, the analysis of fascism and its long-term viability is very similar to the analysis of interventionism in the mixed economy, and the same kinds of economic and political insights apply.

2. Fascism and the Fusion of Business and State

Fascism is unlike other forms of socialism. Its expropriation of the means of production is done without overt nationalization and is not directed toward an egalitarian goal. It is far more subtle than this, and far more insidious. Fascism can arise by revolution, but it can also arise by gradual measures toward state control in the mixed economy. While noting the similarities between fascism and communism, philosopher Roderick Long observes that
there is a difference in emphasis and in strategy between fascism and Communism.… When faced with existing institutions that threaten the power of the state — be they corporations, churches, the family, tradition — the Communist impulse is by and large to abolish them, while the fascist impulse is by and large to absorb them.[3]
The fascist economic strategy is also one of absorption: the regime attempts to secure economic growth and prosperity by fusing a "partnership" between business and the state, absorbing business into the state in this process. Such a strategy appeals to those who correctly judge that private business is the locus of production and economic growth but who incorrectly believe that this productivity is enhanced by partnership with government and central planning of production. The fascists, like interventionists more generally, seek to get the "best of both worlds" from the productive powers of private business under capitalism and the central planning of the state under socialism.
Of course, the "partnership" between business and state that occurs under fascism is of a coercive nature: the state determines its requirements from business and orders private entrepreneurs to meet these requirements, lest they be expropriated of their remaining property (nominally held), or even imprisoned. In describing the fusion of business and state in Nazi Germany, economist Günter Reimann explains the process as follows:
The State orders private capital to produce and does not itself function as a producer. Insofar as the State owns enterprises which participate in production, this can be regarded as an exception rather than a general rule. The fascist State does not merely grant the private entrepreneur the right to produce for the market, but insists on production as a duty which must be fulfilled even though there be no profit. The businessman cannot close down his factory or shop because he finds it unprofitable. To do this requires a special permit issues by the authorities.[4]
This basic conception of the role of the private entrepreneur puts him at the service of the state, and destroys any notion of self-ownership, including any genuine property rights. He exists, not to pursue his own happiness and satisfy his own personal desires, as is the case under liberal capitalism, but rather to produce for the fascist state. From here, the remaining regulations on his business affairs under this "partnership" are similarly directed toward the ends determined by the state: the state regulates the prices he can charge for his goods; the amount he can buy and sell; whom he can employ or dismiss from employment; the wages he must pay; how much of his profit he may keep (if there is any profit produced); and whether or not he will continue his business or shut it down.[5]
In tandem with the enormous body of arbitrary state regulations is the ever-present threat of expropriation. Without any overt nationalization of property the state may send its auditors to scrutinize a business for breaches of regulations, using minor infractions as a pretext for massive fines, amounting essentially to a confiscation of assets.[6]

3. Breakdown of the Rule of Law

Even the fact that every aspect of his business is regulated by the state does not give full appreciation for the perilous situation of the titular owners of property under fascism. In fact, it is not the specific content of regulations, but rather the inevitable breakdown of the rule of law that poses the greatest danger under a system of central planning.[7]
The rule of law under the fascist system is replaced with the arbitrary and unconstrained power of the political elite in the state apparatus.
The capitalist under fascism has to be not merely a law-abiding citizen, he must be servile to the representatives of the State. He must not insist on "rights" and must not behave as if his private property rights were still sacred. He should be grateful to the Fuehrer that he still has private property.[8]
It is the arbitrary power of the fascist regime that is the most important determinant of the relationship between the titular private-property owners and the state. However, it affects not only this relationship, but also the relationship between private citizens themselves.
As a rule, the relations between businessmen are still regulated by laws and customs. But customs have changed and modified law, and law has, in turn, been largely replaced by a vague conception of "honor." It is easier for a businessman to win a case in the German courts by appealing to "National-Socialist honor" than by referring to the exact text of the law.[9]
Like other citizens, the businessman cannot find justice or challenge the predations of the state, even on sound legal grounds under the prescribed regulations. This is because the courts are themselves a mere cog in the workings of the ruling regime, which claims total power over the economy. Any private-property owner who is foolish enough to seek judicial relief from the impositions of the state quickly arouses the ire of state functionaries who have unlimited means to retaliate for any fleeting victories he might obtain.

4. Fascism and the Motivation Problem

Although enforceable property rights are nonexistent, and titular "ownership" is insecure, the fascist system still avoids the crude problems of motivation experienced under egalitarian variants of socialism (e.g., communism). By allowing inequalities in the nominal ownership of property and the consumption that is contingent on this nominal ownership, the state allows incentives for the acquisition of private property to remain, even though this ownership is subordinate to the whims of the state rulers.
This observation may seem to contradict the previous assertion that the private capitalist is only the illusory owner of the property to which he holds title. However, no contradiction exists: although the prerogatives of ownership ultimately accrue to the state under fascism, this does not prevent the private capitalist from enjoying additional consumption if he is the nominal owner of property. Consumption is consumption, and once a resource is consumed by its nominal owner, or otherwise used for his immediate benefit, the state cannot exercise its de facto ownership to prevent this, no matter how authoritarian it may be.
In fact, the acquisition of private property under fascism, even while subordinated to the state, offers more than just consumption benefits. Although all private capitalists are subject to the political power of the state rulers, large capitalists can use the residual economic power they maintain to capture smaller units of political power, particularly in the lower echelons of the bureaucratic apparatus. Reimann explains the interaction between political and economic power in Nazi Germany as follows:
The authoritarian position of the provincial and local bureaucrats — and the degree to which the local Party bureaucracy is independent of industrialists and businessmen — varies with the social structure in different sections of the country. In districts where big industrial magnates have direct relations with the top flight of Party leaders, the local bureaucracy is largely dependent on — in some cases, a tool of — the big concern or trust. In districts where only small and medium-sized firms exist, however, the Party bureaucracy is much more authoritarian and independent. A dual power exists under fascism: the indirect power of money and the direct power of the Party leader.[10]
Thus, under fascism, there remains a large incentive for the acquisition of private property. Although the private capitalist has no enforceable property rights against the state, he can protect his titular ownership and subsidiary control of property by acquiring political power. His control over property, even though it is at the mercy of the state, can allow him to capture some of the political power of the state, which can in turn protect his control. If he is a small private capitalist, the local bureaucrats will be his masters, and he will be forced to pay endless tribute to them merely to survive. However, if his business concern is large and profitable, he may be able to form relationships with more powerful political figures, thereby acquiring political influence, and bringing himself within the ambit of the state apparatus.
The motivation problem in fascism is therefore of a different and more subtle form than the motivation problem in egalitarian socialist systems. Under fascism, the private citizen is at the mercy of the state, which can take his nominally held property from him at any time. He is therefore motivated to consume more of his property than he otherwise would, and to use his savings to buy political influence, rather than engaging in productive endeavors. He is motivated, in short, to engage in political rather than economic entrepreneurialism.

5. The Rise of Political Entrepreneurialism

Under fascism, businessmen may continue to work within the regulatory regime, eking out whatever living they can maintain under the arbitrary decrees of the state bureaucracies. But in order to do so they must seek to obtain influence over the state functionaries in order to survive unmolested. Under fascist regimes that have historically existed, this has given rise to large investments in maintaining good relations with the state, employing "contact men" with connections to politically powerful members of the fascist regime. For example, under the fascist economic system of Nazi Germany such "contact men" became a crucial part of any business concern:
The business organization of private enterprise has had to be reorganized in accordance with the new state of things. Departments which previously were the heart of a firm have become of minor importance. Other departments which either did not exist or which had only auxiliary functions have become dominant and have usurped the real functions of management.
Formerly the purchasing agent and the salesmanager were among the most important members of a business organization. Today the emphasis has shifted and a curious new business aide, a sort of combination "go between" and public relations counsel, is now all-important. His job — not the least interesting outgrowth of the Nazi economic system — is to maintain good personal relations with officials in the Economic Ministry, where he is an almost daily caller … [11]
As with political lobbying in the mixed economy, this heavy investment in influence over the state bureaucracies is used by businesses both for protection from the state itself and to obtain special privilege. Having invested successfully in political influence, a successful business enterprise will seek to use the state as a buyer of its products or services, and will seek to use state power to destroy its competitors. Economic and political powers jostle for control in this system, and large business entities can come to dominate smaller political units, with businessmen becoming powerful political entrepreneurs in the regime.
This interaction between political and economic power under fascism is very similar to that which exists in highly interventionist industries in the mixed economy. In the latter case, problems of regulatory capture are well known, and it is common for large firms to use their connections with the state to obtain special privileges. This leads to a concentration of economic power in a few large firms, who are able to rely on government contracts to boost their income, while at the same time using captured regulatory bodies as a means to block smaller competitors from their market.[12]
If the level of state intervention in such a system increases, government contracts and captured regulatory bodies become more and more valuable, and more effort is shifted away from productive activities and toward the capture of political power. In short, as interventionism grows, and the economic system moves toward fascism, firms will shift their efforts away from economic entrepreneurialism and toward political entrepreneurialism.
Under the pure fascist system, state intervention is ubiquitous, and connections and influence in the state apparatus become all important for business. Instead of productive success and economic entrepreneurialism, political entrepreneurialism becomes the means to acquiring wealth, and protecting it from state predation. Any firm that fails to forge state connections or find an adequate contact man will be forced out of business, while a few big firms with strong political connections will come to dominate the market.[13]
At the same time, political figures in the regime take advantage of their political power to become wealthy private capitalists themselves. High-ranking members of the ruling regime are able to exercise their political power to favor their own business interests and expand their economic power as private capitalists.[14]
Over a period of time, this process means that productive firms and economic entrepreneurs are destroyed, while unproductive (parasitic) enterprises run by political entrepreneurs take their place. Reimann explains the outcome in Nazi Germany:
[The genuinely independent businessman] is disappearing but another type is prospering. He enriches himself through his Party ties; he is himself a Party member devoted to the Fuehrer, favoured by the bureaucracy, entrenched because of family connections and political affiliations. In a number of cases, the wealth of these Party capitalists has been created through the Party's exercise of naked power. It is to the advantage of these capitalists to strengthen the Party which has strengthened them.[15]
The fascist economic system causes a convergence of economic and political power, both through the politicization of existing private capitalists, and the enrichment of political figures. The attempt to form a partnership between business and state eventually leads to a situation where business is the state, and the state is business. The resulting system is fittingly described by what philosopher Ayn Rand called the "aristocracy of pull."[16] Under this system, business enterprises are run by an entrenched class of politically privileged capitalists, with little prospect of outside competition.[17]

6. Why Corruption Is Not the Problem

It is worth noting that the breakdown of the rule of law under the fascist system means that corruption of the legal and bureaucratic system is likely to be rampant. However, it is not lawbreaking that is the problem — the problem is the law itself.
The fascist system empowers the state to intervene in all aspects of business, violating property rights at will. Its repudiation of free-market capitalism means that central planners are expected to take an active part in running the economy and cannot merely stand back and leave business alone (at least not without implicitly repudiating the fascist system). This interventionism means that considerations of property rights must necessarily be replaced by the amorphous notion of the "public good" (however this happens to be expressed), creating conditions where business success is determined primarily by influencing the judgment of bureaucrats and powerful political figures.
Because property rights have been discarded, political entrepreneurialism becomes crucial to success, regardless of whether bureaucrats are "corrupt." It occurs whether bureaucrats exercise their judgment in a transparent and impartial manner, or sell their power directly to wealthy business entities. It is not the corruption of bureaucrats that is the problem; it is the fact that there is no honest way to dole out special favors to business under a system in which the state has total control.[18]

7. Information and Calculation Problems in the Fascist Commonwealth

The rise of political entrepreneurialism is not the only problem with the fascist economy. It is augmented by the standard information and calculation problems of socialism, stemming from the lack of any genuine private ownership and the extensive price and wage controls imposed by the state.[19] (Even if price and wage controls are absent, prices and wages will be heavily distorted by state interventions in the economy, so that these prices are not commensurate to the true costs of resources.)
As with other variants of socialism, the economic exchanges in the fascist economy are not driven by the preferences of consumers or the requirements of productive entrepreneurs. Instead, the exchange of goods proceeds, mimicking the market economy in some respects, but the price system reflects the extensive price and wage controls of the fascist state, or, in the absence of price controls, the distorting effects of its other interventions. This means that the central-planning bureaucrats in the fascist state are unable to determine the true value of resources. They distort the prices of goods to such an extent that rational allocation of resources becomes impossible. Misallocations of resources occur as prices of good are artificially suppressed or inflated.
At best, the central planners can increase output for favored businesses or areas of the economy at the expense of other businesses and areas of the economy, while at the same time destroying the very price system that allows entrepreneurs to calculate rationally under the free market. Since they have no method to objectively value competing projects, their interventions will involve a misallocation of resources compared with the free-market case, and will frequently involve an aggregated loss of resources even ignoring opportunity costs. Thus, despite any pretensions to the contrary, the state is unable to increase total economic output through its central planning; instead, it destroys the price system and causes loss.[20] This gradually leads to economic decline.

8. Economic Decline and the Incentives of the Ruling Elite

The forgoing analysis of the motivations of businessmen and the economic ineptitude of the central-planning apparatus is pregnant with obvious economic conclusions. The more authoritarian the economic system becomes, the more valuable is the capture of political power and the less valuable is the expansion of productive capacity. All other things being equal, the authoritarian system will lead businessmen (and others) to shift their efforts away from production and toward the acquisition of political power.[21]
The result is obvious: under an authoritarian system, political entrepreneurialism increases, and production decreases. This further politicizes the economy and leads to ever-greater distortions of prices, making rational calculation impossible. As authority over the means of production grows, more and more people compete more and more ferociously through the political process for a smaller total economic output. With no genuine conception of property rights to guide them, there is no moral impediment to the coveting of property that is "owned" by others, and there is no legal impediment to its capture.
It is again worth noting that this is merely the most extreme manifestation of the economic effects of interventionism in the mixed economy. Since fascism is, in essence, a system of hyperinterventionism, the economic effects of the fascist system are merely the logical extremes of smaller "pragmatic" interventionist programs. Each intervention in a mixed economy distorts prices, misallocates resources to unproductive endeavors, and results in a net loss of production.[22] At the same time intervention increases the value of political influence and thereby shifts effort from production to political lobbying.
With enough political intervention in the economy, this culminates in economic stagnation, then net capital consumption, and, finally, economic collapse, occurring when capital supplies become insufficient to sustain basic services. As this process occurs, parasitic groups in the system suck as much as possible from the dying economy, with their parasitic activities becoming increasingly frantic as the economy collapses and the resources available for capture become scarcer.
The problems with the fascist economic system become more and more clear, but there is no incentive for those in control of the state apparatus to avoid the approaching disaster. Since the only antidote to the problem is liberalization of the economy from state control, the cure for the economic decline threatens the personal livelihoods of the state bureaucrats and the ideological program of the higher-level members of the ruling regime.
Of course, it is true that sustained economic decline will eventually threaten the position of the ruling elite, particularly since they must make some appeals to the "public good" in their efforts to maintain their own power. However, their situation is threatened far more directly and far more immediately by the cure for economic decline than from the decline itself.
The authoritarian State breeds irresponsibility on the part of this ever-growing and legally privileged group. Their position is secure — unless they are purged by their own friends, often as a result of rivalries — whereas the general economy is insecure. They do no work which adds goods or social services to the market. Their job is: to hold their job. The rest of the community finds itself serving as the hardworking host upon which the bureaucratic clique is feeding and fattening.[23]
We therefore see the most terrifying aspect of the fascist system. The problem is not merely that its authoritarian controls destroy the economy in the long-term. The greater problem is that as this process occurs, the authoritarian system undermines the human capital of the society it operates on. In particular, it creates a privileged ruling elite who have wrested all economic and political power from the productive capitalists they have expropriated, at the expense of impossible promises to the masses. Their sole incentive is to maintain the parasitic system that gives them power, prestige, and money — and they will do anything to keep it, even as they watch the general economy collapse into ruin.

9. The Drive to War

The economic decline ensuing from state intervention, misallocation of resources, and rising political entrepreneurialism must eventually lead to a crisis of confidence in the state, if not deflected by some nationalistic endeavor to rouse the support of the public and instill them with some alternative fear. Even the most authoritarian regime must rely on compliance from the public to maintain its power, and so it is natural that the fascist state will turn to war and conquest as its economic problems become a threat to its rule.
War and conquest serve three main purposes for the fascist state. Firstly, notwithstanding its risks, war promises the possibility of conquered territories to serve as resource cash cows for the declining economy. Secondly, the presence of an external military threat allows the ruling elite to rationalize their authoritarian rule and expand their domestic power over the public, while imbuing them with nationalist fervor. Finally, the threat of death and ruin from real or alleged foreign enemies makes the predations of the state look to many of its citizens like the lesser of two evils, and so the discontent of the public is directed to an alternative source.
This drive to war is a logical consequence of the ideology and economic program of fascism and interventionism more generally. It is no accident that fascist ideology promotes war as an energizing and righteous endeavor. Because the domestic policies of the authoritarian state revolve around appeals to nationalistic ideals (e.g., the "public good"), militarism is a natural corollary, and it is easy for the state to rouse the public to war.[24]
Of course, war is economically destructive, and more rapidly so than domestic intervention. It involves a massive reallocation of resources to military projects, a full or partial withdrawal from the international division of labor,[25] and the direct destruction of resources by enemy forces. Moreover, war involves the risk of military defeat, a prospect that usually ends the rule of the existing political elite. Nevertheless, it is the only option for a ruling class that has repudiated liberalism and hitched its reputation to the fascist system of authoritarian control. In describing the motivation of the Nazis in World War II, Reimann explains that
Nazi leaders in Germany do not fear possible national economic ruin in wartime. They feel that, whatever happens, they will remain on top, that the worse matters become, the more dependent on them will be the propertied classes. And if the worst comes to the worst, they are prepared to sacrifice all other interests to maintain their hold on the State. If they themselves go, they are ready to pull the temple down with them.[26]
Or, as Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels expressed it in his diary,
The war made possible for us the solution of a whole series of problems that could never have been solved in normal times.[27]
For those outside the ruling elite, there is a sense of inevitability to the whole process, from economic decline to war. They are stripped of any genuine property rights and exist at the mercy of the state and its functionaries. They are devoid of economic or political power, and are mere pawns in the machinations of the fascist state and its leaders.
The fatalism which was typical of the spirit of the German businessman before Europe was plunged into [World War II] was not due to economic difficulties alone, but far more to a feeling that he had become part of a machine inexorably leading him to disaster.[28]

10. Concluding Remarks

The economic system of fascism is economically unviable in the long run, and what is true of this most extreme manifestation of hyperinterventionism is true, to a lesser extent, of any interventionist system of government. The central planning of the state and the concomitant destruction of private-property rights destroy the independent businessman and replace him with a parasitic impostor, the political entrepreneur, who succeeds by special privilege rather than by economic production.
The vast power of the state leads to a convergence of all economic and political power into a small elite of political entrepreneurs, who will hold on to their power and privilege at the expense of the general economy. Combined with all-pervading regulations, price and wage controls, and other distortions of prices under state central planning, this leads to economic stagnation, then economic decline and collapse.
The long-run result of the fascist or interventionist economic systems is the drive toward war and conquest, with the ruling class desperately seeking to maintain its power at all costs, even if the cost is the complete destruction of the nation. The endpoint is tyranny, death, and destruction.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Why Is the Story About Malia Obama Vacationing in Mexico Disappearing from the Web?

UPDATE: The Administration has just responded to the disappearing stories.
Read it here.

Have you heard that Malia Obama, the president’s daughter, is reportedly spending her spring break in Oaxaca, Mexico? Allegedly, she’s jetting off with some of her classmates and 25 Secret Service agents to a country that the State Department has said all Americans should avoid. But something is different about the latest “Obama vacation controversy:” references to it are disappearing from the Internet — and fast.
Around 3:00 EST, a Telegraph story reporting on the event was the first to vanish (note how the url remains the same in the “before” and “after”):
Malia Obama Oaxaca, Mexico Vacation Story Disappearing from the Web
Before
Malia Obama Oaxaca, Mexico Vacation Story Disappearing from the Web
After
Then, the related Huffington Post article was found to be linking back to a completely unrelated Yahoo News page titled “Senegal Music Star Youssou Ndour Hits Campaign Trail.”
The Huffington Post article:
Malia Obama Oaxaca, Mexico Vacation Story Disappearing from the Web
Links to this site:
Malia Obama Oaxaca, Mexico Vacation Story Disappearing from the Web
The Yahoo News story that HuffPo links to makes no mention of Malia Obama or her Mexican vacation. This raises two possibilities: either HuffPo has made an error in its link, or Yahoo has also removed its “Malia in Mexico” story. The latter more likely considering that the “-obamas-daughter-spends-springbreak-in-Mexico” url is still present in the Yahoo story.
And now, the link to the Huffington Post article on Google redirects to the site’s main page; the page itself is gone.
In addition to larger news organizations, smaller sites are also removing their stories.
Click here to find out more!

Free Republic removed a related discussion thread:
Malia Obama Oaxaca, Mexico Vacation Story Disappearing from the Web
And “Global Grind” removed its related article:
Malia Obama Oaxaca, Mexico Vacation Story Disappearing from the Web
Of these sites, the only one to state a reason for the change was “Free Republic,“ where the Admin wrote ”Leave the kids alone.”
So that raises the question: Why were all of these sites taken down? Is the story false? Were they removed for security reasons?
Consider that the story still lives (as of this publication)* on the site of The Australian, which uses a story from the well-respected AFP (a sort of Associated Press for France):
Malia Obama Oaxaca, Mexico Vacation Story Disappearing from the Web
So far, no outlets have explained why the stories have been removed. It will be interesting to see if they do.
The Blaze’s Jonathon M. Seidl contributed to this report.
*The Australian has since removed its article.
UPDATE:
Buzzfeed is now reporting that it is a “long tradition” not to report on presidential kids’ vacation plans, citing this as the possible reason for the many unexplained retractions.
If this is the case, it still raises questions as to why Malia was allowed to vacation in a country that the State Department recommends no American travels to.
Neither AFP nor the White House responded to Buzzfeed’s request for comment.
UPDATE II:
The Montreal Gazette has now posted the story of the vacation. It’s one of the only sites that is reporting on it. Interestingly, the story is actually attributed to the AFP (mentioned above). You can read it here.